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The Sunrise Scenario: How a Climate Community Can Create a World Federation of Nations

Originally published by Supranational Federalism · June 2026

Three decades of consensus diplomacy have failed to halt rising emissions. A small coalition of rich and poor countries, bound by law and a shared purpose, could grow into something larger, as coal and steel once grew into the European Union.

History shows that states pool sovereignty in the face of a common adversary or shared interests such as greater security, increased trade or better government. The unification of Britain, American states, Germany and many other countries followed this pattern. Nations have also strengthened global governance following a major crisis. Two World Wars were catalysts for states to pool some national sovereignty through international institutions. Since 1945 governments created thousands of international organisations to manage almost every policy area. This system of world government is fragmented, unequal, often ineffective, and lacking democratic accountability. A few countries have much more power than others. But as the global balance of power shifts the system is becoming more unstable, as before the first two world wars.

Today, humanity faces an even greater existential threat: the climate crisis. Despite over thirty years of international negotiations, global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at a dangerous rate. While domestic actions are vital, they cannot address a challenge that respects no frontiers. A more robust mechanism for global cooperation is urgently needed.

If history is a precedent, this will not happen until climate change devastates powerful states. But far-sighted leaders can take bold steps to create better systems of inter-state governance, as in the creation of the USA and European Union. This is not easy, as America’s brutal civil war showed. But the painstaking evolution of the EU shows how a small group of countries can create a form of federal government to unite widely unequal countries, starting by managing critical resources such as coal and steel.

About this article

Originally published by Supranational Federalism in June 2026. Read the original.

Cite this article in MLA style

Alexander, Titus. “The Sunrise Scenario: How a Climate Community Can Create a World Federation of Nations.” Supranational Federalism, June 2026, https://federalists.eu/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/SF-n.-4-2026-.pdf. Republished in Mondial, https://mondial.press/articles/2026/06/the-sunrise-scenario/.

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