The war against Ukraine cannot end with a winner and a loser. A compromise will be necessary. This is the meaning of Macron’s warning that Russia must not be humiliated. The first step to take on the way towards the construction of world peace is to reach a ceasefire with immediate effect, taking into account that the supply of arms to Ukraine and sanctions to Russia have been so far insufficient to stop the war. Europe’s dependence on Russia for gas supply has been a colossal strategic mistake, which has bound the hands of most European countries, notably Germany and Italy.
The total embargo by the EU on oil and gas imports from Russia, in line with the position taken by the US and suggested by the European Parliament, would have deprived Russia of the resources to finance the war. The EU wasted this unique opportunity. Now the initiative is in the hands of Russia and we have to expect that next winter Russia will close the gas tap. The frost has defeated Napoleon and Hitler. Putin hopes that it should push the Europeans to remove sanctions. It is reasonable to think that negotiations will start when the balance of forces in the field have persuaded Russia that it cannot prevail.
At the same time, the EU should accelerate the transition towards production of renewable energy, i.e. the replacement of fossil fuels with carbon-free energy sources that is the only way to ensure energy independence. To win this challenge, the EU should create an Energy Union, that will represent the greatest transfer of sovereignty at the European level after the monetary union. At the same time, the promotion of the energy transition is the way to fight against the deadly threat humankind is facing, represented by climate change.
As long as the war continues, there will be no chance for an advancement of world federalism. This is the reason why now the top strategic priority is the ceasefire. But we should be aware that conditions favourable for the spread of federalism manifest themselves in the great regions of the world. First of all in the EU, that is the laboratory of international democracy, but also in the African Union and in Central and Southern America.
